NASA’s Seventh Workshop for
Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methods
(PRAM-7)
Overview:
This four-day workshop will cover the applicability of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to NASA programs/projects and activities, the current state-of-the-art of PRA methodology for aerospace applications, and its use in risk-informed decision-making. The workshop will be valuable to both program/project managers and PRA practitioners. It will begin with an introduction to PRA for managers, including its role in risk-informed decision-making. Following this introduction, there will be a discussion of the major concepts used in PRA. Several recently completed studies that have used PRA techniques to support decision-making will be presented. Additionally, the new NASA handbook entitled “Bayesian Inference for NASA Risk and Reliability Analysis” will be introduced.
Topics to be covered are:
PRA Overview and its Role in Decision-Making
The Concept of Probability and its Application in PRA
Logic-based Modeling Techniques and their Application to PRA
Simulation-based Modeling Techniques and their Application to PRA
PRA of a Preliminary Design Concept
Event Probabilities and Hardware Failure Models
Modeling of Uncertainties and Data Analysis
Modeling and Quantification of Dependent Failures
Human Reliability Analysis
Importance Measures and Risk Ranking and Their Applications
Uncertainty Propagation
Bayesian Inference Techniques
PRA Modeling Process
Physical and Phenomenological Models
Software Failure Modeling
Precursor Analysis
Objectives:
At the end of this course, participants will understand the fundamentals of PRA and its potential role in decision-making. This understanding is essential to meet the requirements of NPR 8705.5, Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects; NPR 8715.3, NASA General Safety Program Requirements (System Safety Requirements); and NPR 8000.4, Integrated Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirement (draft revision).
Instructors (listed in alphabetical order):
Dr. George Apostolakis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Dr. Homayoon Dezfuli, NASA Headquarters
Mr. Chester Everline, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Dr. Sergio Guarro, Aerospace Corporation
Mr. Dana Kelly, Idaho National Laboratory
Dr. Donovan Mathias, NASA Ames Research Center
Dr. Ali Mosleh, University of Maryland
Mr. Peter Prassinos, NASA Headquarters
Dr. Curtis Smith, Idaho National Laboratory
Dr. Michael Stamatelatos, NASA Headquarters
Organizer and Point of Contact for Technical Matters:
Dr. Homayoon Dezfuli, Manager
System Safety, NASA HQ
(202) 358-2174
NASA Safety Center, Ohio Aerospace Institute, 22800 Cedar Point Road, Cleveland, OH 44142
June 10 – June 13, 2008
